Our homes have changed over the last 70 years, including homes size, building technology, family size, and a rise in standard of living. As people’s income increased over the 20th century they bought bigger and better homes. This caused the median home value to go up even when taking into account the effect of inflation. For example a full bath cost a lot since you need double plumbing for hot and cold water while a flush toilet needs a home connected to a sewer system or septic tank. In addition, housing costs include both land and the house; where building space in limited (i.e. cities) land will increase in value with population growth.

Median home value calculated by the U.S. Census factors in all of these changes and covers the housing markets in both rural and urban areas. While the historical price index created by Robert Shiller looks at home prices as an investment (like stocks) focusing on the resale prices of a subset of the standard, unchanged houses in large metro areas.

Data Source for Housing Price Index from Robert Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance
Median Home Values: Historical Census of Housing Tables Home Values; ”An Approach for Calculating Reliable State and National House Price Statistics
Characteristics: Housing Characteristics In The U.S.Median and Average Square Feet of Floor Area

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A $10,000 house in 1890 would be worth almost the same in real dollars in 2010 but more than $350,000 in nominal dollars in 2010. Which matters to the home seller, real or nominal prices? If a seller is holding a mortgage then the question is: Can I sell for more or less than I owe? Since that loan amount is not adjusted for inflation then the nominal value is more importent both the seller and the mortgage holder. It is when nominal prices fall that banks have trouble with high rates of mortgage defaults. But if you are looking at the long-term value of real estate as an investment (compared to stocks or bonds) then you need to take into account the real growth.

Data Source for Housing Price Index from Robert Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance

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Comparing Real GDP per Capita growth to the real growth in S&P Composite (price only). However, the stock price series is adjusted for inflation using CPI-U while the GDP per Capita (from MesuringWorth.com) is adjusted with the GDP Deflator.

Annualized growth rate of since 1871:
Real GDP per Capita = 2.0%
Real stock price return = 1.9%
compared to
Real total return with dividends reinvested = 6.2%

Data from MeasuringWorth.com and IrrationalExuberance.com

 

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New graph I created looking at long-term growth of US GDP per capita, very similar to my earlier graph of US GDP. Will post log version later this week.

Data from MeasuringWorth.com

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